Panama’s weather authority expects a very strong El Niño to continue through February 2027, increasing the likelihood of reduced rainfall, higher temperatures and water pressure across much of the country.
The Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá updated its El Niño assessment on September 29. It said the phenomenon has now persisted for five consecutive months and has a probability close to 100% of continuing until February.
El Niño occurs when the tropical Pacific becomes unusually warm, altering rainfall, wind and temperature patterns. In Panama, its typical effects include less rain and more consecutive dry days along the Pacific slope, while some Caribbean areas may receive additional rainfall.
The institute cautioned that the phenomenon could reduce available water, accelerate evaporation, lower yields for some agricultural products and increase the risk of vegetation fires.
Recent watershed data already show substantial dryness. Of 34 watersheds assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index, 16 on the Pacific slope were classified as extremely dry. Three others were very dry and five were moderately dry. Four Caribbean watersheds ranged from slightly wet to very wet.
For October, below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Chiriquí, southern Ngäbe-Buglé, central and southern Veraguas, Coclé, Colón, Panamá and Darién. Herrera, Los Santos and mountainous areas of Chiriquí may receive normal or slightly above-normal totals.
The seasonal outlook does not mean Panama will be free of heavy rain or flooding. IMHPA stresses that short, intense storms can occur within an otherwise dry month. That distinction is especially relevant this weekend, when a separate watch warns of strong thunderstorms, saturated soils and possible flooding.
Conditions may improve in some watersheds during October and November if expected rainfall materializes, including around the Chagres River. However, the longer-term projection points toward continued heat and water stress as Panama approaches its dry season.
The outlook could affect municipal water systems, agriculture and hydroelectric generation, as well as Panama Canal operations, which depend on freshwater stored in the canal watershed.
Sources: Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá (IMHPA)
